What will change by 2040

This was a question asked in a LinkedIn group and I thought I do the long answer as blog post.

1) The most significant new thing in the next 30 years: Age Management
We will recognize that Baby Boomers life to 110 - 130 years of age.
Our kids may turn 150 and kids born in 2040 may become 180+
The German government is actually this year (2010) exploring to lift retirement age to 70. In the next 20 years we will need to come up with a new "flexible retirement mechanism" as some will be able to work longer than others. Imagine the complexity.
Some of us will recognize that aging on top of all biological/physical changes is somewhat dependent on our mental stage - I plan to become 150 - 180. That means projects of 50 years in length are absolutely possible under one team, or many who plan to retire with 70 can't because there are another 50 years in front of them or the dream of living much longer may become a night mare to some. Political leadership is challenged to prepare their nations for new educational models (start a new career with 65, do that for 30 years and then be prepared to do some totally new crazy ass stuff)

2) Global Leadership
I am analyzing leadership cycles since 20 years. The rise and the fall of Egypt, Greece, Rome, Great Britain, US, Japan, China... There is one striking communality:
>>> If a society is spending more time and resources on protecting their assets and status quo, than risking it, they are at the end of their leadership cycle <<<. Japan became a co-leader with the US in terms of technology, infrastructure, productivity without most US citizen even noticing it, still believing the US is the leading nation. Australia and Europe are today's most prosperous societies, with very low unemployment rate and high degree of innovation, productivity, infrastructure investments and technology. One of them will be taking leadership by 2020 and be dominant by 2040.

3) Innovation
Nobody knows what is the main innovation in 2040 but with some time and energy we could predict it. Computers, Internet, Nano Technology, Bio Technology, Gene Technology, Social Media are all innovations that had it's roots 20 years before a break through. So 2040 is 10 years too far off but a prediction to 2030 maybe:

- Active Age deceleration, gaining 10 - 30 years
- Combination of development in astrophysics and commercially profitable projects may open new doors for space travel and even deep space engagements
- Bio augmentation. We are somewhat able to do things already and we will massively augment our biological capabilities with synthetically bio engineered "add ons" - piercing is just a precursor to something very different.
- Sociological / Spiritual innovation. Societies became more spiritual when the society is facing trouble - seeking for some spiritual help. For the first time we see spiritual engagements and interest in economic up times. Something on that end will happen in the next 30 years.

4) Democratization of influence
The way we influence in business and politic will change in its foundation - and we see it already very prominently. We will bring the traditional mechanism of democracy (the way we practice it today) to a halt and will need to rethink how we organize our society. There is quite a risk of anarchy involved - but I trust we will make it work at the end of the day. ;) 50+ years ago participation in voting was below 50%. Only those people voted who felt they have an idea what they vote on. The weaker the political parties where, the more they motivated everybody to "execute their right" - to a point where the majority voter has no idea what they are actually voting for other than a few clips on TV, well prepared speeches and advertising campaigns worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The educated voter is a minority and force a party to create a political model that is attractive to those who are influencer with no expertise. I love the movie Ideocracy.

Most of my shorter term predictions where pretty good - so will see you in 2040 for a review. :)